Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,029$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $236$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(9.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,103$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,575$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,476.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(86,476.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,860$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,741.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,741.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $81,715$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,498$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,487.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,487.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $265$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.62 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(251.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,862$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,750$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,611.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,611.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $339$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(6.06 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{329.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(329.5\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $711$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,013$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,510.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(16,510.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $633$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.38 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{609.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(609.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,397$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,189$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(-2.29 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,891.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,891.8\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(-6.84 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,948$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,625.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 57.0)}}\) (asimptote \(75,625.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,935$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(131.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,739.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,739.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $67,203$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $380,677$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,104.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(316,104.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,773$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,796.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,796.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $336,714$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $291,442$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{249,105.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(249,105.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,645$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,797.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,797.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,532$ on 2020-09-16
